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039
FXUS61 KBTV 081357
AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington VT
957 AM EDT Sat 
Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...  
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 Upper level 
low pressure will control the regions weather
through Monday with scattered 
to numerous 
 diurnal 
showers each
day, along with a slight chance 
for thunderstorms. Drier
conditions return mid-week, but turn unsettled 
again towards
Friday. 
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
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As of 957 AM EDT Saturday...Quick update to the forecast this
morning to adjust PoPs 
and temps based on current surface obs 
, radar 
, and satellite trends. Latest radar 
shows morning showers
have dissipated with more isolated 
coverage currently, and
satellite tells the tale of the lack on instability 
with several
wave clouds noted and only slightly glaciated cloud tops. RAP
analysis additionally shows mid-level heights are slowly rising,
indicative of the base of the upper trough 
lifting northward.
All this said, feel coverage for this morning is going to be
more isolated 
, and then scattered 
this afternoon with the most numerous 
showers and isolated 
 thunder 
across the northern tier
zones. Temps were also knocked down a few degrees based on
current obs 
and expected cloud cover, with highs mainly in the
60s, touching 70 in the Champlain and lower CT Valley.

Previous discussion...
Some showers have continued through the overnight as base of
upper trough 
and center of upper low shifts over the North
Country. We should have a break in the showers later this
morning as shortwave 
energy pushes out of our forecast area.
But, expect diurnally driven showers once again this afternoon
with a slight chance 
for thunderstorms as well. With cold pool 
aloft under upper level 
low which will remain stationary over
our region through Sunday, there will be a chance for showers
with thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Could also see some
small hail 
with thunderstorms, but strong winds should not be a
concern. Showers will decrease in coverage after sunset both
this evening and Sunday evening. Surface temperatures will be
cooler than normal 
during the day and near normal 
overnight. QPF 
will vary quite a bit, but some areas will have heavier rain if
they have multiple thunderstorms at one location. From today
through Sunday average rainfall 
will be around a quarter of an
inch to three quarters of an inch, with locally higher amounts. 
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 AM EDT Saturday... Unsettled 
weather will continue as
a closed upper low over the region slowly meanders eastward.
Showers will be diurnally driven for the most part, with
increased areal coverage in showers during the afternoon before
dwindling during the evening hours. Temperatures during the day
on Monday will continue to be on the cooler side, with highs in
the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be near seasonal, with
temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Saturday...A break in the unsettled 
pattern
can be expected for mid-week as the closed upper low pushes away
and a period of surface high pressure builds across the region.
Cooler temperatures will trend towards seasonal normals, with
highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s before warming into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for the second half of next week.
Overnight low temperatures will largely be in the 50s for most
of next week. Unsettled 
conditions will return as another upper-
level trough 
swings through, although there is still plenty of
uncertainty regarding timing so largely stuck to NBM guidance
with some chances for precipitation starting Thursday into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday... MVFR 
ceilings currently at SLK, RUT and
MSS from showers that are continuing in parts of the area and
lingering moisture 
. VFR 
and isolated 
to scattered 
showers return
after sunrise today, but are not expected to result in a
reduction in visibility 
or ceilings below VFR 
. Winds will
generally be southwest at less than 10kts through 12z, before
turning south-southwest or westerly with gusts up to 20 kt 
at
times after 15z. Additional showers will move in early Sunday
morning after a short break in the shower action overnight. Some BR 
development will be possible as winds go light overnight as
well. Outlook 
...

Sunday: Mainly VFR 
, with local MVFR 
possible. Definite SHRA 
, Slight chance 
 TSRA 
.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR 
, with local MVFR 
possible. Chance SHRA 
.
Monday: MVFR 
/ IFR 
conditions possible. Chance SHRA 
.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR 
, with areas MVFR 
possible. NO SIG WX 
.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR 
, with local MVFR 
possible. Slight chance 
 SHRA 
.
Tuesday Night: VFR 
. NO SIG WX 
.
Wednesday: VFR 
. Slight chance 
 SHRA 
.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles