-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
 
 
542
FXUS61 KBTV 051457
AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1057 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm day is expected with a few showers and thunderstorms
possible, but areal coverage of precipitation will be less 30
percent. High temperatures will be in the 80s with a few warmer
valley locations near 90 again today. Occasional rain showers with
embedded rumbles of thunder 
are likely 
for Thursday, along with
localized heavy down pours. Cooler and unsettled 
weather prevails
into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...  
-- Changed Discussion --
 
As of 1057 AM EDT Wednesday...Interesting morning with several
thunderstorms sliding east-southeastward, clustered in/near
Chittenden County. Marginal amounts of instability 
are slightly
elevated, with a stable 
layer near the surface up to a couple
thousand feet, and moderately steep lapse rates are present
above that layer. The relatively narrow axis of best low level convergence 
and instability 
is only slowly shifting to the
southeast, so its hard to keep the showers from moving into a
different area. Updated PoPs 
to highlight this cluster of
showers for the next couple of hours, with little or no
precipitation elsewhere. Based on observations this morning, rainfall 
amounts of locally an inch or so remain possible. There
should be enough subsidence 
behind this small scale system to
get skies to clear out where it currently is cloudy. With long
days, think enough heating will occur such that we have kept
high temperatures unchanged, but could see some busts in the
forecast.

Previous discussion below:
Well our stretch of outstanding North Country Chamber of
Commerce weather will be coming to an end by Thursday, as a
widespread wetting rainfall 
is likely 
, along with cooler temps.
But first today we are dealing with the potential for isolated 
to widely scattered 
showers/storms, but recent modeling trends
have throttled back on areal coverage of precip. Water vapor
conts to show deep dry layer in place, while mid/upper lvl 
 ridge 
axis is still to our west. Have noted a weak lobe of slightly
better moisture 
and weak embedded s/w energy from an axis north
of the Ottawa Valley into portions of SNE this morning, which wl 
help in the development of our isolated 
/widely scattered 
activity today. Timing of convection 
is a bit tricky, as sounding 
data shows best sfc 
based CAPE 
values of 800- 1400 J/kg 
late this morning/early aftn 
, before drier air aloft again
mixes toward the sfc 
and drops our dwpts back into the l/m 50s.
This scenario produces less instability 
during peak heating and
limits the overall areal coverage of precip. Based on this and
the latest RAP/HRRR and NAM 
3KM composite 
 reflectivity 
progs
have throttled back pops 
into the 15-30% range, with highest
values over the Dacks and portions of the NEK of VT. The risk of flash 
flooding is very low today, therefore WPC has removed the
marginal threat. Progged 
925mb temps are btwn 
21-23C, which are
very similar to yesterday when we saw BTV reach 90F, so
thinking 90F again today at BTV, with 85F at MPV and 82F at SLK.
Once again the difference btwn 
the 10th and 90th percentile for
high temps is 89-91 off the latest NBM at BTV. High confidence
for temp fcst 
.

Tonight bl 
layer dwpts increase quickly around sunset with values in
the upper 50s to mid 60s as southerly winds prevail ahead of our
next synoptic scale 
system. A muggier night is anticipated, combined
with the high temps today has placed portions of our valley
locations in moderate heat risk with pockets of major in the SLV for
Day 1. Given the higher dwpts and lingering instability 
a few rogue
showers/ isolated 
rumbles are possible overnight, similar to this
morning, but areal coverage <10%. Lows wl 
be very mild with readings
in the upper 50s to upper 60s/near 70F.

Thursday...Deep and closed cyclonic circulation 
over the northern
Great Lakes approaches our cwa 
with associated height 
falls and
favorable upper lvl 
 divergence 
with warm/occlusion type boundary
lifting from sw to ne. This boundary wl 
be associated with strong
deep layer moisture 
 advection 
, as pw 
values surge 
 btwn 
1.75 and
1.90", which is 95th percentile for early June. In addition, warm cloud layer 
depths increase btwn 
10-11.5kft by 18z Thurs as initial
s/w energy is lifting acrs 
our cwa 
. Additional s/w energy with
mid/upper lvl 
 trof 
approach our cwa 
 btwn 
18-00z Thurs with
tall/skinny CAPE 
profiles per sounding 
data, supporting localized
heavy rainfall 
. HREF show 40-60% probs of 2" of qpf 
 acrs 
portions of
the northern Dacks into northern/central VT with 15-25% probs of up
to 3" possible in a few localized areas. WPC has maintained a
marginal risk of exceeding flash flood 
guidance, which given recent
dry spell, relatively high flash flood 
guidance, and storm motions
of 10 to 15 mph looks reasonable attm 
. Given the dry antecedent
conditions and above ingredients feel probability 
of flash 
flooding
is <5% at any given location acrs 
our cwa 
on Thurs. Highs wl 
be
cooler with readings in the mid 70s to lower 80s, but with higher
dwpts it wl 
feel a bit muggy 
. 
-- End Changed Discussion --
 
 
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 421 AM EDT Wednesday...The frontal boundary will exit the
region Thursday night, marking the start of a more unsettled 
weather
pattern. The steadiest rainfall 
will come to an end Thursday night
as the best moisture 
moves to our east, with a break in
precipitation before more showers develop during the day Friday.
Current QPF 
amounts range between 0.5 to 1.25 inches, with some
higher amounts possible across the high terrain and within any
heavier showers. Showers during the day on Friday do not look to be
particularly heavy given the better moisture 
will be out of the
region, with a closed low 
over the Great Lakes starting to move into
the region. Overnight low temperatures Thursday night will be on the
mild side, in the 50s and low 60s. Temperatures during the day on
Friday will be cooler in comparison to the last few days, with highs
climbing into the 70s, along with plentiful cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 421 AM EDT Wednesday...A closed upper low centered over the
Great Lakes will gradually move overhead towards the weekend,
bringing cool and unsettled 
weather to the region. While there are
continued chances of showers and possible thunder 
over the next
several days, no day is expected to be a complete washout and the
showers will be more hit or miss. The greatest coverage of showers
can be expected during the afternoon as diurnal 
heating and cold air
aloft allow for greater instability 
, with shower activity dwindling
overnight. Daytime high temperatures will generally be in the 60s
and 70s, with seasonable overnight lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
The upper low will gradually move eastward, potentially bringing a
reprieve from the showery weather by midweek, although there is
still some uncertainty regarding the track and evolution of the low
and how quickly it departs.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...A small cluster of showers with a few
rumbles of thunder 
will pass just north of BTV over the next
hour or so. Additional showers/storms are possible today, but
areal coverage will be limited and difficult to pin point exact
timing at a taf 
site. Have place some vcsh in tafs with VFR 
conditions prevailing. Light and variable winds this morning
will become south/southwest at 5 to 10 knots, except southeast
at RUT/PBG. Additional widespread showers develop toward 12z
Weds across northern NY taf 
sites with potential for MVFR 
cigs. Outlook 
...

Thursday: Mainly VFR 
, with local IFR 
possible. Definite SHRA 
, Slight chance 
 TSRA 
.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR 
, with local IFR 
possible. Chance SHRA 
, Slight chance 
 TSRA 
.
Friday: VFR 
. Likely 
 SHRA 
.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR 
, with areas MVFR 
possible. Chance SHRA 
.
Saturday: Mainly VFR 
, with areas MVFR 
possible. Likely 
 SHRA 
, Slight chance 
 TSRA 
.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR 
, with areas IFR 
possible. Chance SHRA 
.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR 
, with local IFR 
possible. Likely 
 SHRA 
, Slight
chance TSRA 
.

&&

. CLIMATE 
...
Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible over
the next three days at some climate 
sites.

Record high maximum temperatures are possible today, primarily
at Massena and Montpelier. A record high minimum temperature 
may
occur at Plattsburgh for those nights. Record daily
precipitation is possible at Massena on Thursday.


Current Record High Temperatures:

June 5:
KMPV: 85/2021
KMSS: 88/1974


Current Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 5:
KPBG: 65/1963

June 6:
KPBG: 67/1973


Current Record Precipitation:

June 6:
KMSS: 1.09/1953

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber CLIMATE 
...Kutikoff