-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
 
 
425
FXUS61 KBTV 061743
AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front 
will bring widespread showers to the
region today, with some locally heavy rainfall 
possible. More cloud
cover will keep temperatures from being less hot than recent days
with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s. Unsettled 
and cooler
weather remains anticipated Friday through the weekend, with showers
finally becoming less numerous 
after Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
-- Changed Discussion --
 
As of 134 PM EDT Thursday...Midday satellite imagery showing
very little clearing outside of Saint Lawrence County, which
will temper thunderstorm 
potential going forward. Looking upstream 
, area of heavier showers along a cold front 
has now
moved to central NY and is just poised to enter our western
counties. Noting relatively weak low-level lapse rates with precipitable water 
values analyzed around 1.7+ inches over our
NY counties. In addition to the moist air mass 
, warm cloud
depths in excess of 10,000 feet are indicative of an environment
favourable for heavy rain this afternoon. Looking upstream 
,
reported precipitation amounts over western into central NY are
nearing an inch, so have increased our precipitation forecast
amounts for today and have added in heavy rain wording. Newest
forecast calling for 0.7-1.1 inch rain over northern NY and into
parts of northwestern Vermont. These amounts are below flash 
 flood 
guidance, but will be watching area closely given heavier
precipitation rates. Previous discussion follows...

Showers across the region this morning will dwindle over the
next several hours, before more widespread showers associated
with the cold front 
approaching from the west move into the
region. Model soundings support the potential for heavy rainfall 
, with PWAT 
values near 1.7 inches, tall and skinny CAPE 
profiles, and deep warm cloud depths. The Excessive Rainfall 
 Outlook 
from WPC continues to have the region in a marginal risk
today, although dry antecedent conditions mitigate the threat,
although slow storm motions and any training storms will be
something to watch 
for given the favorable environment for heavy
downpours. SPC 
also has portion of the forecast area in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather, with the primary threat being
gusty winds, although cloudy skies will limit the amount of instability 
across the region with limited diurnal 
heating.
Temperatures today will be several degrees cooler than the last
few days, with daytime highs climbing into the 70s to low 80s.

The cold front 
will exiting the region sometime Friday morning.
Depending on how quickly the showers move out of the region, the
plentiful low level moisture 
will allow for fog 
or low stratus 
development overnight tonight, with several models highlighting east
of the Green Mountains. Overnight lows will be quite mild tonight,
although a few cooler than the previous night, with temperatures
only dropping into the 50s to low 60s. Behind the cold front 
,
temperatures aloft will cool as an upper-level low centered over the
Great Lakes works into the region, with some scattered 
showers
possible in the afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will
generally be in the 70s. 
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Thursday...Showers continue on Friday night into
Saturday as surface and upper level 
lows remain anchored north of
our area. Cyclonic flow 
will bring periods of showers through this
timeframe. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals overnight
with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. On Saturday maximum
temperatures will be a little cooler than seasonal normals due to
clouds and periods of rain showers, mainly lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Thursday...Periods of showers continue from Saturday
night right through Monday as aforementioned surface and upper level 
low pressure systems take a long time to finally push eastward.
Temperatures will remain cool through this period. Temperatures will
then begin to warm headed into the middle of next week as surface
and upper level 
ridges build into our area and we`ll also see a
return to drier weather. No significant systems on the horizon 
at
the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
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Through 18Z Friday...A cold front 
will sweep through the
forecast area from west to east between 18Z and 03Z. Outside of
the cold front 
expect predominantly VFR 
conditions today, but a
line of moderate to locally heavy rainshowers with some embedded
thunderstorms is expected along the front 
. Within these
showers, visibilities will drop to the IFR 
/ MVFR 
range, while
ceilings will drop to MVFR 
levels. Some thunderstorms are
expected, mainly at KMSS between 19 and 22Z, KSLK between 20 and
22Z, and moving into the Champlain Valley (KPBG, KBTV, and
KRUT) between 22Z and 01Z. Thunderstorms will weaken east of the
Greens, but still expecting some low ceilings ( IFR 
/ MVFR 
level)
at KMPV/KEFK after 03Z. Ceilings will generally lift between 10Z
and 15Z, improving to predominantly VFR 
through 18Z.

Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be initially from the southeast
at 5-10 knots, shifting to the southwest behind the front 
but
remaining in the 5-10 knot 
range.  Within thunderstorms however,
expect some gusty winds of variable directions with gusts possible
in excess of 30 knots, especially over northern NY between 19Z and
22Z. Outlook 
...

Friday Night: VFR 
. Chance SHRA 
.
Saturday: Mainly VFR 
, with areas MVFR 
possible. Likely 
 SHRA 
.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR 
, with local MVFR 
possible. Chance SHRA 
.
Sunday: Mainly VFR 
, with areas MVFR 
possible. Likely 
 SHRA 
, Slight
chance TSRA 
.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR 
, with local IFR 
possible. Chance SHRA 
.
Monday: Mainly MVFR 
, with local IFR 
possible. Chance SHRA 
.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR 
, with local IFR 
possible. NO SIG WX 
.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR 
, with areas VFR 
possible. Slight chance 
 SHRA 
. 
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&&

. CLIMATE 
...  
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Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible at
some climate 
sites.

Record daily precipitation is possible at Massena and
Plattsburgh today.

Record Precipitation:

June 6:
KPBG: 1.05/2008
KMSS: 1.09/1953 
-- End Changed Discussion --
 
 
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Duell/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Duell CLIMATE 
...Kutikoff/Kremer