-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
 
 
902
FXUS61 KBTV 311141
AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington VT
741 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After another chilly start this morning, we`ll see a steady warming
trend through the weekend and into early next week. High pressure
will keep the weather dry for the next several days. Our next best
chance of rain doesn`t arrive until Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
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As of 740 AM EDT Friday...Temperatures have warmed into the
upper 30s to low 40s in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks,
so have issued this update to expire the Frost 
Advisory. No
other changes were needed.

Previous discussion...Our quiet weather will continue through
the rest of this week as high pressure settles over the region.
Mid/ high clouds 
currently seen across much of central Quebec
will spread southward through the day, bringing us at least a
period of filtered sunshine today. Still, expect today`s highs
to be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, in the upper
60s to low/mid 70s. Skies will clear again tonight, though it`s
not looking quite as cool as the past couple of nights. Still,
the usual cold prone locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom will get down into the upper 30s, with low 40s to low
50s expected elsewhere. Then we`ll have a beautiful start to the
weekend with abundant sunshine expected for Saturday. Highs
will top out in the mid 70s to low 80s. 
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 AM EDT Friday...Deep layer ridging continues to establish
itself across the region Saturday night but the latest trends show a
decreasing in the amplitude 
of the upper level 
 ridge 
. This should
allow for some moisture 
, in the form of cloud cover, to move over
the region towards daybreak on Sunday. Given these trends, we have
lowered highs slightly on Sunday and increased low temperatures
Saturday night and Sunday night by a degree or two. The changes
remain minor and any chances for showers will be held at bay given
the subsidence 
associated with the upper level 
 ridge 
. Overall, we`ve
got a beautiful weekend on tap for the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 309 AM EDT Friday...The longwave pattern becomes more amplified
on Monday which should help usher in some lower level moisture 
in
addition to warmer temperatures. While subsidence 
should prevent any
showers for the first half of the week, it`s looking increasingly likely 
that the influx of low level moisture 
will likely 
support scattered 
 fair 
weather cumulus 
clouds in the later morning and
afternoon hours. This may be just enough to stunt temperatures. The
latest ensemble 
guidance has trended slightly cooler with highs in
the mid 80s compared to the upper 80s they were showing this time
yesterday as a result. Overall, the air mass 
is expected to be
stagnant but we could see afternoon mixing each afternoon which
could create some breezes but nothing likely 
over 15 mph. Rain
chances will increase for the second half of the week but details
remain very fuzzy as a closed low 
pressure system over the North
Atlantic is expected to slowly break down which could delay the
departure of the upper level 
 ridge 
and thus delay rainfall 
. In the
meantime, enjoy some partly to mostly sunny 
skies coupled with
seasonal to slightly above normal 
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday... VFR 
conditions will prevail through the
period. Early morning clear skies will give to an increasing
mid/high deck 15-20 kft after 14Z and through much of the day.
Skies then clearing overnight tonight. Winds will trend NW 5 to
10 kt 
with gusts up to 18-20 possible after 14Z, then subsiding
to light and variable after 00z Saturday. Outlook 
...

Saturday: VFR 
. NO SIG WX 
.
Saturday Night: VFR 
. NO SIG WX 
.
Sunday: VFR 
. Slight chance 
 SHRA 
.
Sunday Night: VFR 
. NO SIG WX 
.
Monday: VFR 
. NO SIG WX 
.
Monday Night: VFR 
. NO SIG WX 
.
Tuesday: VFR 
. Slight chance 
 SHRA 
.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...  
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VT...None.
NY...None. 
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Hastings