-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
 
 
021
FXUS61 KBTV 190140
AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington VT
940 PM EDT Sat 
May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...  
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Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the middle
of the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the region
with dry conditions persisting; temperatures warm well into the
70s on Sunday and upper 70s to mid 80s by Monday. Building heat
will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Remember, the temperature
of area lakes and rivers remains below 60 degrees which is
hazardous to those unprepared or unaware of the threat of cold
water shock. 
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...  
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As of 931 PM EDT Saturday...Skies continue to clear from the
Champlain Valley outward into eastern Vermont and across
portions of northern New York. As skies clear, chances of fog 
will increase especially for locations that received rainfall 
today.

Previous Discussion...Water vapor showing deeper moisture 
associated with weak trof 
shifting east of cwa 
, while subsidence 
/dry air aloft is building over northern NY into the
CPV. This drying wl 
help to produce clearing skies overnight
with some areas of patchy fog 
. Greatest probability 
of fog 
development with vis 
below 1sm wl 
be NEK and parts of
central/eastern VT, along with portions of the northern Dacks.
The highest potential wl 
be from 07z-11z tonight. Temps wl 
cool
back into the lower 40s SLK/NEK to l/m 50s CPV/SLV. Have noted
some higher sfc 
dwpts pooling in the SLV, which combined with
temps dropping below cross over values and light winds could
result in some fog 
SLV, but confidence is too low to place in fcst 
 attm 
.

Sunday/Sunday night is very quiet with building mid/upper lvl 
 ridge 
,
resulting in a dry and warm fcst 
. Progged 
925mb temps warm btwn 
15-
16C which is a few degrees warmer than today and should support
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Winds wl 
be south at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday night wl 
be warmer and less areal coverage of fog 
/ br 
given a
day removed from precip and less potential for lows dropping below
cross over values. Lows generally in the mid/upper 40s to upper 50s. 
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 342 PM EDT Saturday...Our warming trend continues on Monday.
Mostly likely 
high temperatures appear to range from 80 to 84 for
most locations with abundant dry air in the 700 millibar 
level and
above sliding through on westerly/northwesterly flow 
. There may be scattered 
 cumulus 
with moderately high 850 millibar 
 moisture 
. As
surface based instability 
grows with daytime heating, sufficient orographic 
lift should support spot showers and maybe a thunderstorm 
, especially in the Adirondacks where a chance of
showers is indicated. Dry air entrainment and poor mid-level lapse
rates do limit the potential of thunderstorms. Very little spatial
coverage is expected if anything can fire due to lack of upper level 
forcing or a surface boundary in the region. Monday night there will
be some increasing chances of showers towards daybreak associated
with a vigorous shortwave 
approaching from the central Great
Lakes. There are large timing differences with this system,
however, as it slides across the upper level 
 ridge 
in our
region, so this part of the forecast is very uncertain at this
time. Modest southerly flow 
will keep temperature rather mild in
the upper 50s to low 60s in most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 342 PM EDT Saturday...A pretty active 
weather pattern
looks to develop, especially midweek. A mix of both heat and thunderstorm 
potential exists for multiple days, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday. While a heat advisory 
may not be issued,
both the WBGT and experimental HeatRisk have continued to trend
higher, well into the moderate range, such that I expect heat
impacts will occur in our region. Compared to the previous
forecast, Tuesday has trended slightly less hot due to the
potential for thunderstorms during the daytime, while Wednesday
is now looking like the warmest day of the week with highs in
the upper 80s in most valley locations.

Tuesday is a sneaky severe thunderstorm 
day as the
aforementioned shortwave 
Monday night could provide very good
support for widespread convection 
if we see heat build ahead of
the upper level 
forcing. Otherwise, the best largest scale
severe weather potential is still indicated for Thursday.
However, looking at cluster analysis for the overlap of shear 
and CAPE 
, global models are split. Out of the four most likely 
scenarios, two suggest the cold front 
moves through too early in
the day to support severe weather, one scenario shows best
ingredients to our south, and one does favor our forecast area.
Behind the expected cold frontal passage, temperatures look to
return to near normal 
for the later part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...All terminals are currently VFR 
and they stay
that way through the evening. Patchy fog 
will develop across the
region later tonight. Fog 
is most likely 
at SLK and EFK while it is
possible but less likely 
at MPV and MSS. Any fog 
would quickly
dissipate once the sun rises, though it may leave MPV quicker if a
lower cloud deck can arrive before sunrise. Regardless of what fog 
forms, ceilings at MPV should lower to MVFR 
later in the night. This
cloud deck should scatter by mid-morning and VFR 
conditions will
return. Any other low ceilings would be explicitly due to fog 
. Once
conditions become VFR 
tomorrow, they will remain that way for the
rest of the day. Winds will generally be relatively light and
southerly during this period. Lake breezes could cause winds to
become more westerly tomorrow at BTV and more easterly at PBG. Outlook 
...

Sunday Night: VFR 
. NO SIG WX 
.
Monday: VFR 
. NO SIG WX 
.
Monday Night: VFR 
. Slight chance 
 SHRA 
.
Tuesday: VFR 
. Chance SHRA 
, Slight chance 
 TSRA 
.
Tuesday Night: VFR 
. Slight chance 
 SHRA 
, Slight chance 
 TSRA 
.
Wednesday: VFR 
. Slight chance 
 SHRA 
, Slight chance 
 TSRA 
.
Wednesday Night: VFR 
. Chance SHRA 
, Slight chance 
 TSRA 
.
Thursday: Mainly VFR 
, with areas MVFR 
possible. Chance SHRA 
.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Boyd/Myskowski